The causes of change in Catalan public opinion: Multilevel governance and economics


GT 6.6 El voto económico en las postrimerías de la Gran Recesión

Autor/a
Xavier Romero Vidal (Leuphana University Lüneburg)
Programa:
Sesión 1
Día: viernes,22 de septiembre de 2017
Hora: 09:00 a 11:00
Lugar: Seminario 0.2.

This study aims to assess the impact of government action and economic factors on political preferences at the subnational level, taking Catalonia as a case in point. Using Stimson’s (1991) policy mood approach, I estimate the evolution of political preferences from 1991 to 2015, both in the left-right scale and regarding support for decentralization or independence.

While previous studies have mostly accounted for national government action, this study considers the simultaneous effect of the policy output of both national and regional governments. The results suggest that public preferences move in the opposite direction of the action of national governments, while regional governments seem to lead changes in public preferences.

Regarding economic factors, their impact on political preferences seems to have changed over time. While the political center moved to the right after the 1993 crisis, it has moved towards the left after the 2008 crash. Furthermore, while the first crisis did not trigger changes on preferences for decentralization, the second seem to have reinforced the pro-independence movement.

Palabras clave: Policy Mood, Thermostatic model, preferences, nationalism, Catalonia